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Volatility has come back into the market as the narrative shifted toward a higher-for-longer monetary policy backdrop. Signs of sticky inflation and a resilient economy, including a strong labor market, have underpinned the change in expectations.

The first quarter is in the books, and it was an excellent one for stocks. The S&P 500 index rode a resilient U.S. economy, easing inflation, rising corporate profits, and anticipation of summertime rate cuts from the Federal Reserve (Fed) to solid gains in March, the fifth straight winning month, and the best first quarter since 2019.

The initial public offering (IPO) market allows institutional investors to incorporate the macroeconomic landscape with individual corporate earnings data--and future earnings forecasts--to ascertain a share price that will hold up to analyst and media scrutiny coupled with overall market dynamics. Here we provide an update on recent IPO activity, performance, and discuss why IPO activity matters for markets.

Market breadth is an important indicator to assess the overall health of the market. Current breadth readings suggest a healthy and sustainable bull market. Participation in the rally has notably expanded, especially among the more cyclical sectors. While there are signs of overbought conditions percolating; overbought does not mean the rally is over.

The S&P 500 is coming into month-end aboard an impressive 3% March rally, likely extending its winning streak to five straight months. Even more impressive is the broader market's 10.0% first-quarter price gain, which includes 21 record highs as of March 27 (equating to roughly a new high every three trading days) and a maximum drawdown of only 1.7%. In today's blog, we consider a few seasonal studies that suggest this rally could have more room to run.

The difference between strategic and tactical investment time horizons can be likened to the ebb and flow of tidal patterns in oceans. Strategic investing mirrors the steady rise and fall of the tides, focusing on long-term goals and expectations more stable akin to the predictable rhythm of oceans. On the other hand, investing in tactical time horizons resembles the dynamic nature of changing tides, responding to short-term market conditions like unpredictable surges and waves in the sea.

The last two months of reports on the macro landscape were mixed. Inflation readings were hotter than expected, while retail sales were weaker than expected. And markets seemed to be in turmoil over the confusion of how the Fed would react. So, investors need to ask if the storyline has changed. We think not. Despite some hotter inflation prints, the trajectory is the same. Inflation is cooling, but that ride down to 2% will take some time and be bumpy. 

As spring begins, the weather is starting to warm up. For the stock market, the temperature has been rising for a while now. In fact, since December 2023, the S&P 500 has not experienced a pullback of even 2%. Strong starts to years tend to signal more gains ahead, so this calm market may not precede a storm. In fact, when the S&P 500 has been up in January and February, it has gained an average of 11% over the rest of the year and has been higher in 26 out of 28 cases.

Earnings season is upon us as some banks and a small handful of other blue chip companies have already reported results for their quarters ending June 30. The results on the surface probably won't offer much to write home about given consensus estimates imply a 7% year-over-year decline in S&P 500 earnings per share. However, the key question is always what's priced in, which at least offers an opportunity for markets to react positively.

Now that we’re beyond the midpoint of the investing year, it’s a great time to look at where we’ve been—to help position your portfolio for the latter half of the year. LPL Research’s Midyear Outlook does this with in-depth analyses, insights, and perspectives from LPL Research’s leadership team.

The long dormant capital markets have recently begun showing signs of interest from institutional investors and deal makers anxious to bring companies to market. While activity remains muted at best, expectations are focused on 2024, when there is a prevailing consensus that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will be finished with its rate hike campaign, and that economic conditions will be resilient enough to underpin a strong capital markets environment.

As we finalize the log on the first six months of 2023, we believe there's value in reflecting on recent months gone by. Doing so can help crystallize key learnings and help chart a course through the rest of the year. Looking back on the first half of 2023, it's probably fair to say the outcome has been a bit better-than-expected for the stock and bond markets, especially compared to 2022's tumult. So, what major points have we learned through the first half of the year?

On June 8, the S&P 500 entered a new bull market. After such a strong rally off the October lows, this young bull probably needs a breather. This market may be due for a pause. Bull markets are not linear. However, the impending end of the Federal Reserve (Fed) rate-hiking campaign, and the economy's and corporate America's resilience, help make the bull case that steers LPL Research toward a neutral, rather than negative, equities view from a tactical asset allocation perspective.

As the economy is likely downshifting, investors should take heed that the Federal Reserve's (Fed) current stance is eerily similar to early 2007. Clearly, their expectations were not met as the economy soon fell into recession. That’s not suggesting another 2008 is coming, but rather highlights how fast the economic environment can change.

Stocks have had a nice run, but at higher prices, the bar for further gains gets higher. We have recently made the case that there are a lot of reasons to expect the market to go higher between now and year-end. But with stocks at higher valuations, high-quality bonds offering attractive yields, an S&P 500 Index with concentrated leadership facing technical resistance at 4,300, and an elevated risk of a late-2023 recession, we think it makes sense to be a bit careful here.

Every so often Washington likes to remind us how hard it can be to get things accomplished. The most recent example is the debt ceiling--the amount Congress can borrow to pay its bills. It seems like we have this debate every few years and in the end a deal is made, which is just what happened this time. Considering equity markets never really reacted to the drama, perhaps this is a good reminder that focusing on long-term objectives is the best strategy, even amid a fair amount of market noise.

The mega-cap technology companies have powered the broad market higher this year. In fact, the 8.1% gain in the S&P 500 year to date has been driven entirely by six mega-cap stocks: Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), NVIDIA (NVDA), Meta (META), Amazon (AMZN), and Alphabet (GOOG/L). Is this narrow leadership a problem for stocks looking forward? We try to answer that question in this blog post.

Economists like to remind us there is no such thing as a free lunch. In investment parlance, that just means all investments carry risk-even cash. And the big risk with cash is reinvestment risk. LPL’s Strategic and Tactical Asset Allocation Committee (STAAC) recommends investors maintain a neutral duration relative to benchmarks with the expectation that Treasury yields are likely headed lower (or at least not much higher) over the next few quarters.

While the "better than feared" label fit the past couple of earnings seasons quite well, based on the magnitude of upside surprises in the first quarter, and encouraging guidance from corporate America, that's probably underselling it.

Spring is often thought of as an uplifting time, marked by growth and renewed hope as we emerge from the long months of winter and look ahead to the rest of year. Investors saw signs of such renewed hope in recent weeks, especially on the inflation front as several inflation measures showed signs of improvement. But although it initially appeared that a stable spring would set the markets up for a calm, quiet summer, a flurry of recent activity is testing investor sentiment.

The Federal Reserve (Fed) has a history of raising short-term interest rates until something “breaks.” Considering the Fed has raised rates from a near-zero level to 4.75% (upper bound) over the course of only one year, it was almost a near certainty this time would be no different. However, we don’t think we’re on the brink of a full-blown crisis, as market indicators we follow suggest contagion risks are still currently low.

Financial markets were shaken as Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), the California bank subsidiary of SVB Financial Group (SIVB), fell into FDIC receivership. SVB is the first FDIC-insured institution to fail since 2020 and the largest by assets since Washington Mutual failed in 2008. We may see a bit more market volatility than we would like to see in the short term, but this is not another 2008.

Markets have adjusted to several changes this year. The pace at which inflation has cooled is slowing. The bar for earnings has been lowered. Market relationships to interest rates have been turned upside down. And many of last year’s losers are this year’s winners, and vice versa. Here we take a look at some of the biggest changes in the market environment so far in 2023 and what those changes could mean for investors over the balance of the year.

Soft landing or no soft landing, that is the question, with all due respect to William Shakespeare. In this blog post, LPL Financial shares their thoughts on the potential for a soft landing, the possible role China might play in that, and whether markets are pricing in too much good news.

Whether you're one to set ambitious New Year's resolutions or simply use the beginning of the year to reset on a few habits, there's almost always some value in reflecting on the past year before looking ahead. The same is true for the markets. When we look back on 2022, it's easy to identify the challenges--but if we look closer, we can also uncover some opportunities.

Investors got more excited about international investing late last year. Some of that was chasing better returns, as developed international equities solidly beat the U.S. over the last three months of 2022. After such strong performance in international benchmarks recently, is there enough good news still yet to come for these markets to continue to outpace the U.S.?

The S&P 500 is coming into month-end with a return of 4.6%. A positive return for January implies the index would hit the trifecta, which includes 1) a positive return for the Santa Claus Rally period, 2) a positive return for the first five days of January, and 3) a positive monthly return in January.

The latest episode of the debate between stock market bulls and bears has gotten more interesting. For every valid point from one side, there’s an equally compelling argument on the other side. So we’ll just recognize that the outlook is uncertain, weigh the pros and cons, glean what we can from the past, and give it our best shot.

To ease some of the burdens of tax season, LPL Financial has created this helpful 2022/2023 Tax Season Guide, which contains all the information you may need to easily address tax issues and questions that you might face. It will assist you in becoming familiar with important dates, deadlines, challenges, and opportunities that may arise during tax season.

2022 was a dizzying year as markets and the global economy continued to find itself out of balance due to the still present after-effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the policy response to it. If 2022 was about recognizing imbalances that had built in the economy and starting to address them, we believe 2023 will be about setting ourselves up for what comes next as the economy and markets find their way back to steadier ground.

Through all the challenges, newfound opportunities, and every high and low we've experienced during the last couple of years, it's no surprise why we might be striving for more balance. The news we're hearing on a daily basis has the potential to disrupt the balance of our lives. But with resilience, perspective, and the support of close connections, we can navigate through it all and regain our sense of equilibrium.

The beginning of a calendar year is often the time when the previous year’s reflections transition to a new year’s hopes. Given the market’s continued instability during 2022 and a resulting tough period for stock and bond prices, everyone is hoping for a fresh start. And history gives us cause for optimism following a difficult year.

We believe accountability and modesty are among the keys to success in this business. In striving for those qualities, LPL Research has a tradition of starting off a new year with a lessons learned commentary. We got some things wrong last year, no doubt. But those who don't learn from their mistakes are doomed to repeat them. Here are some of our lessons learned from 2022.

Recent inflation data has tempered expectations for future Federal Reserve tightening, including a potential peak in the terminal rate near 5.0% in May or June of 2023. While the market has welcomed this news, history suggests the path to a Fed pivot could be volatile for stocks due to elevated inflation and interest rate risk.

6 points that can help you feel more at ease with market volatility Although market uncertainty might make you feel jittery, keeping your investment cool is critical to your financial success. While it's hard to watch your portfolio value fluctuate, remember these six things before acting out of emotion.

This post reminds us of three things we know about historical recessions: technical definition, warning signals, and not perfectly concurrent. As more metrics start blinking red, sticking to long-term investing plans with guidance from a financial professional is becoming more and more important.

Been there, done that. Don’t want to do it again. That’s how many people who lived through the 1970s and 1980s feel about inflation. But today’s reality is that your money isn’t going as far as it once did, and you’re probably wondering if the situation will get worse. Since there isn’t a crystal ball to predict what will happen with the economy, let's focus on what we know. In this post, we focus on some of the most common inflation-related questions and answers.

Expectations are very low for this earnings season. The challenges are many, with intense cost pressures and slowing economic growth at the top of the list. The chorus of analysts and strategists calling for big cuts to estimates has gotten louder. Expect estimates to come down, but not collapse. Here we take a look at whether expectations are low enough as we preview the third quarter earnings season.

As we look ahead, we discuss why there may be emerging reasons to believe that the next year may be more constructive than the last.

As Federal Reserve (Fed) officials continue to emphasize the Fed's commitment toward restoring price stability, the dollar marches ever higher. Markets are currently pricing in another 75-basis point rate hike at the November 2 Fed meeting as calls for the Fed to halt its aggressive campaign are mounting. Worries persist that tightening financial conditions, underpinned by a stronger dollar, will lead to deeper cracks within the global financial system.

On October 16, China will begin its 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party in Beijing. This plenum is especially significant because it is expected that President Xi Jinping will be granted an unprecedented third term, something that he set in motion in 2018 when term limits were abolished.

This has clearly been a challenging year for households. Stocks and bonds are both down significantly. Elevated food and gas prices continue to stretch budgets, and higher interest rates have increased borrowing costs. But we continue to see signs that the worst may be behind us.

The LPL Research Strategic and Tactical Asset Allocation Committee is increasing its recommended interest rate exposure in its tactical allocation from underweight to neutral. Now that interest rates have moved substantially higher, we believe opportunities in fixed income have improved and are looking to add back to certain areas within fixed income that may benefit.

Inflationary dynamics continue to surprise to the upside, and markets now expect the Fed to pursue one of its most aggressive rate hiking campaign in years. U.S. Treasury yields continue to move higher as well. We think we've seen the biggest moves higher in yields, but as long as inflationary pressures continue to surprise to the upside, interest rate volatility will likely remain.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell reiterated his warning that getting inflation under control will require some pain. Powell is likely making these warnings based on the arcane, clunky relationship between inflation and unemployment. The key to getting the market back into balance is a bigger labor force, and the economy is starting to experience a larger labor force as individuals come off the sidelines and rejoin the job market.

The difficult 2022 for stocks may not get much easier because as we now wait for better news on the inflation front, we have to contend with a seasonally weak month of September. While we got some welcome news in last Friday's jobs report, more evidence of falling inflation will take time to materialize. The good news is a seasonally strong fourth quarter is right around the corner.

When it comes to stock market performance, August was "the best of times, and the worst of times." The strong market rally that peaked in mid-August was viewed by many analysts as a transition from a bear to bull market, based on the surge in breadth that stocks enjoyed and the magnitude of the two-month rally that began in mid-June totaling 17%.

For the past year, supply-related problems contributed more to inflation than demand-related imbalances, but that may be changing soon. There are at least three factors that could change the course of inflation.

Last week was quite a week. These days a Federal Reserve (Fed) policy meeting alone gets a lot of headlines and has market participants on the edge of their seats. Add to that the second straight quarter of negative gross domestic product (GDP) growth that exacerbated recession fears, the busiest week of earnings season, and important but sometimes under-the-radar inflation data, and last week was epic for market watchers.

So far, this year hasn’t seen a full-blown crisis like 2008–2009 or 2020, but the ride has been very bumpy. We may not be flying into a storm, but there’s been plenty of volatility the first part of 2022. This commentary includes excerpts from Midyear Outlook 2022: Navigating Turbulence

Markets rarely give us clear skies, and there are always threats to watch for on the horizon. But the right preparation, context, and support can help us navigate what lies ahead. How businesses, households, and central banks steer through the rough air will set the tone for markets over the second half of 2022.

Stocks have been unable to make up much ground since the June 16 lows, with a bear market rally amounting to only around a 4.3% gain in the S&P 500 Index since then (as of July 1). While we acknowledge that a V-shaped recovery is probably not in the cards and prior valuation targets no longer appear achievable, we remain constructive on equities for the second half, but not complacent.

Both stock and bond markets have been challenging this year, but in this blog post we explain what this could mean looking forward.

2022 has been rough all-around for the American consumer. Not only are we battling decades-high inflation, but investors' portfolios are off to one of the worst starts to a year in history as we near the halfway point. It may be early, but we see some potential signs that energy trends could be changing, which would not only have positive implications for consumers’ wallets, but also potentially investors’ investment portfolios.

The bear market that started on June 13 has left the S&P 500 Index 23.5% below its January 3 high. Heightened fears of recession and that the Fed might “break something” sent stocks down for the 10th week out of 11 for only the second time in history. To help investors manage through this difficult period, we answer some of the top questions we’re getting about bear markets and list some things to watch to assess progress toward an eventual durable low.

A bear market is officially here thanks largely to stubbornly high inflation. For many of us, it has probably felt like a bear market for a while now, but the S&P 500 Index didn't close more than 20% below its January 3 record high until June 13. So now that the bear market is here, what should investors expect? Read this blog post to learn more.

This year has been tough for investors, not just because stocks have fallen but also because bonds have not helped mitigate those losses as they have historically done. In this post, we discuss the outlook for diversified portfolios of stocks and bonds to make the case that the 60/40 portfolio isn't dead.

Many pundits are issuing recession warnings and saying the economy is heading for a hard landing. Amid the cacophony of voices, we think the economy is slowing just like central bankers want but not shrinking. Further, we argue that a slowing economy is very different than a shrinking one.

The bull market that began in March of 2020 came dangerously close to an end. From March 23, 2020 through January 3, 2022, the S&P 500 Index gained 114% (excluding dividends). From that January 3 closing high through the recent low on May 19, the S&P 500 fell nearly 19%, narrowly avoiding the level at which bull markets end and bear markets begin.

At the risk of sounding cliche, making the case for stocks to stage a second half rally back to the prior highs requires investors to see through some heavy cloud cover. If you prefer another market cliche, it's times like these when investors need a crystal ball. We fully acknowledge how tough it is to see the bull case for stocks right now, and a retest of recent lows is certainly possible, but in this post we lay out the bull case for the second half of the year.

Core bond investors have experienced the worst start to the year ever. However tough this year has been so far though (and it has been tough), the potential for future returns has improved meaningfully, in our view. Starting yields tend to be a good predictor of future returns and have become more attractive in a number of markets recently. With yields on most fixed income markets moving sharply higher, now could be a good time to revisit fixed income markets.

First quarter earnings season was solid by just about any measure, but based on recent market behavior it's obvious that in general market participants paid little attention. This is a macro-driven market, so it will likely take positive macro developments, i.e., better news on the inflation front, to turn stocks around. However, these results are impressive on their own and shouldn't hurt the case for the bulls.

It's been a very tough start to the year with both stocks and bonds down sharply. So perhaps it is no surprise that investor sentiment polls are showing signs of extreme pessimism. In this blog post, we look at some of the latest investor sentiment data and share our thoughts about the disparity between what investors are saying and what they are actually doing.

2022 has been a challenging year for investors so far. The S&P 500 Index just had one of its worst Aprils in decades, and May is off to a rocky start. When markets are shaky, it can be helpful to look to long-term fundamentals that have provided the foundation of positive returns for stocks and bonds over the long run. We believe patient investors stand a better chance of meeting their long-term goals.

As we move into spring and leave behind the last signs of a long winter, many worries from a chilly start to the year for markets, unfortunately, are still with us. The S&P 500 Index had its worst April in more than 40 years, leaving the index down over 13% for the year. Previously highflying stocks have come back to earth, with many of them cut in half or more. Just as April’s dark storm clouds are often chased away by a brighter May, we remain optimistic that more sunshine could be coming.

“Sell in May and go away” is probably the most widely cited stock market cliché in history. Every year a barrage of Wall Street commentaries, media stories, and investor questions flood in about the popular stock market adage. In this week’s Weekly Market Commentary, we tackle this commonly cited seasonal pattern and why it might not play out this year, similar to recent years.

Not all recessions are created equal. Previous downturns in the U.S. were prompted by various shocks, with the most recent recession started by health and government-induced shutdowns. Other recessions started in the corporate sector, whereas some started from commodity shocks. The next one could start from geopolitical tensions. Nonetheless, we think the current business and consumer environments are safe from near-term recession risks.

It has been a turbulent 2022 so far for investors. The S&P 500 Index is on track for its worst April in more than 40 years, the Nasdaq entered a bear market on April 26 with its more than 20% decline, and bonds, which typically provide ballast for diversified portfolios during periods of stock market volatility, have not protected. The investing climate is quite challenging, but history suggests patience will be rewarded.

First quarter earnings season is rolling. BlackRock, Delta Airlines, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, and Morgan Stanley were among the first 16 S&P 500 companies to report March quarter results, following 20 index constituents with quarters ending in February that had already reported. In this post, we preview earnings season, highlight what we are watching, and share our latest thoughts on the 2022 profit outlook.

LPL Research reduced U.S. and global GDP forecasts due to Russian commodity disruptions, elevated inflation dynamics, and higher borrowing costs. Still, we expect the U.S. economy to grow 2.7-3.2% in 2022, supported by business investment and consumer services spending in the latter half of this year.

This market may have a bit more left in the tank. The market returns we witnessed in March seem to bear this out, as stocks surged during the month despite the backdrop of war in Ukraine, inflationary pressures, and surging interest rates.

As the stock market recovered from the 2020 pandemic lows, valuations reached levels not seen since the dotcom bubble more than 20 years ago. The reopening economy and massive fiscal stimulus helped fuel one of the strongest starts to a bull market ever (a bull market that just turned two-years-old last week).

Core bond investors have experienced one of the worst starts to the year ever, potentially calling into question the validity of bonds in a portfolio. Despite the poor start, we don’t think the value proposition for bonds has changed much. Moreover, with yields on most fixed income markets moving sharply higher, now could be a good time to revisit fixed income markets.

The green shoots are hard to see right now as spring approaches, clouded by war in Ukraine. Democracy is under attack and innocent lives are tragically being lost. But while we keep one eye on overseas developments, the other remains squarely focused on the fundamentals of the U.S. economy and the stock market to help investors stay the course.

We currently expect the U.S. economy to grow 3.7% in 2022. The risks are to the downside since the Fed may err on tightening too fast, the recent commodity spike may trickle down to the U.S. consumer, and supply and demand imbalances may last longer than expected. This forecast is lowered from our previous 4-4.5% range originally published in Outlook 2022: Passing the Baton. The rest of this commentary explains the overall themes supporting the forecast.

The green shoots are hard to see right now as spring approaches, clouded by war in Ukraine. Democracy is under attack and innocent lives are tragically being lost. But while we keep one eye on overseas developments, the other remains squarely focused on the fundamentals of the U.S. economy and the stock market to help investors stay the course.

With inflationary pressures running higher than many central bankers are comfortable with, calls for interest rate hikes have become louder. A number of important central bank meetings are set to take place in March including the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of Canada, Bank of England, and the Reserve Bank of Australia, to name a few. As such, March could be an important month for monetary policy shifts. The COVID-19 pandemic was an unprecedented shock across the global economy.

Stocks have gotten off to a very rocky start in 2022, with the potential for Federal Reserve rate hikes coming and the geopolitical worries over Russia and Ukraine only adding to the uncertainty. We don't want to minimize the impact of that major geopolitical event, but there is some positive news out there, even though it might not feel like it.

Corporate America has capped off an outstanding 2021 with an excellent fourth quarter earnings season so far. Entering 2021, the consensus estimate for S&P 500 Index earnings per share (EPS) was less than $170. Now with fourth quarter results mostly in the books, that number is 22% higher at $208. Here we recap another solid fourth quarter earnings season and discuss what the results could mean for earnings growth and stock market performance in 2022.

High inflation continues to cloud the economic outlook while its impact on the potential path of rate hikes has left markets unsettled. Inflation is a serious topic, but occasionally it’s useful to revisit it from a lighter perspective. We celebrated Valentine’s Day this last week, and as we do every year, LPL Research takes a look at changing prices from the perspective of some popular ways to celebrate the day with our annual Valentine’s Day Index.

The calendar had barely flipped to 2022 and investors were reminded that even attractive long-term stock returns come with a cost: volatility. In this blog post, we share research from LPL that shares why stocks' recent volatility may not be cause for concern just yet.

In our special Winter Olympics edition of the Weekly Market Commentary, we hand out medals to the U.S., developed international, and emerging markets. Who do we think will get the gold?

Sustainable investing hit several milestones in 2021, but continued to attract its critics. In this article, we look at how sustainable investing fits within the broader concept of sustainability, its growth during 2021, and an implementation framework that has been helpful for many. A well diversified sustainable investing portfolio doesn’t mean that an investor has to make a choice between achieving market-like returns and being an aware social and environmental steward.

Stocks have gotten off to a tough start in 2022. Why has the market pulled back and what might we see going forward?

After a tough start for stocks in 2022, investors are looking for reasons to expect a rebound. After more than doubling off the pandemic lows in March 2020, without anything more than a 5% pullback in 2021, stocks probably needed a break. That doesn’t, however, make this dip feel much more comfortable. Here we cite some reasons we don’t expect this selloff to go a lot further, though a 10% drawdown in the S&P 500 seems reasonable to expect.

Corporate America has been on quite a run. Coming into 2021, S&P 500 Index companies were expected to generate less than $170 in earnings per share. As 2022 begins, it looks like that number may end up higher than the latest LPL Research estimate of $205, one of the biggest earnings upside surprises ever and a big reason why stocks did so well last year. But 2021 earnings are not yet fully in the books. We have one more quarter to go, which we preview here.

The Federal Reserve (Fed) has engineered a massive hawkish shift, causing a bit more stock market volatility recently. But how worried should investors be? Here we take a look back at historical performance for stocks before, after, and much after initial Fed rate hikes to help reassure any nervous investors out there.

With the New Year comes new beginnings, new goals, new challenges, new friendships, and new opportunities. 2021 was an incredible year for the economy and investors, but to us, the future remains bright for 2022 and beyond.

As we launch into the New Year, we’re highlighting three 2021 market lessons that we think may matter for 2022: 1) equity valuations are a poor timing mechanism, 2) structural forces have a large influence on interest rates and may keep them relatively low, and 3) politics and markets don’t mix.

We expect interest rates to move modestly higher in 2022 based on near-term inflation expectations above historical trends and improving growth expectations once the impact of COVID-19 variants recede. Our year-end 2022 forecast for the 10-year Treasury yield is 1.75–2.00%. An aging global demographic that needs income, higher global debt levels, and an ongoing bull market in equities may keep interest rates from going much higher.

We expect solid economic and earnings growth in 2022 to help U.S. stocks deliver additional gains next year. If we are approaching—or are already in—the middle of an economic cycle with at least a few more years left (our view), then we believe the chances of another good year for stocks in 2022 are quite high.

When the COVID pandemic began in early 2020, many people, including our team, started working from home. We quickly realized we could provide the same service from home that we'd offered from our office. Consequently, when it was time to renew our lease, we decided to continue our day-to-day operations from home. As a family-owned, family-focused firm, we will still provide the same service we have brought to you and your families for the last 40 years.

We believe pent-up demand, gradual improvement in supply chain challenges, solid labor force growth, and productivity gains will all contribute to another year of above-trend economic growth in 2022. COVID-19-related risks remain and the potential for a policy mistake may be elevated as the economy moves towards normalization, but we think the overall environment will be supportive of business growth and ultimately equity markets.

The LPL Research team shares investment insights and market guidance analysis as we head into 2022. Businesses on the whole adapted and evolved, so the economy continues to create opportunities for investors.

Although Omicron has caused some uncertainty, LPL Research is optimistic that the usual December bullish season will take place.

The path back to normal has been bumpier than anticipated, but the U.S. economy continues to show some strong momentum.

There are only a few weeks to go in 2021 and it has been an incredible year for the stock market bulls. In fact, in many ways it could go down as one of the best years ever. This week, in honor of Thanksgiving, we wanted to take a closer look at three reasons to be thankful. From the stock market to the economy, there are indeed many reasons to be thankful this year.

After an upside inflation surprise in October, it's clear that peak inflation may still be ahead, possibly even pushing into 2022. While the Federal Reserve (Fed) maintains its position that elevated inflation will be transitory, we have yet to see progress. In this market update, we look at five signs to watch for over the next several months that may signal that inflation may be near or at its peak.

The past year and a half have tested all of us, but overall, the economy continues to strengthen, COVID-19 trends are greatly improving, and this still relatively young bull market is alive and well. As the leaves turn colors and begin to fall to the ground, there are many reasons to be thankful.

Since we began our investing careers, we’ve had the concept of diversification drilled into our heads. Some refer to it as the only free lunch in investing. Well, when it comes to geography, that advice hasn’t been helpful for some time (you could say the same about value-style investing). Staying close to home and favoring the United States won’t always be the best move, but for now, we think it still is—as we discuss here.

With Halloween over the weekend, what better to write about this week than what scares us? If our positive near-term market outlook proves to be overly optimistic, we believe one—or perhaps more than one—of these five things will likely be the culprit: inflation, an aggressive Federal Reserve, profit margin pressures, pulling forward of seasonal gains, and potentially overly bullish sentiment.

The S&P 500 Index has gained more than 20% so far this year, making more than 50 record highs along the way. Certainly nobody should be upset with that return if that was all 2021 brought us. However, we see signs that there could be more gains to come in the final two months of the year.

We have used most of the superlatives we know to describe corporate America’s stunning performances over the past two earnings seasons. Despite lofty expections, results exceeded estimates by the biggest margins we’ve ever seen. We expect solid earnings gains during the upcoming third-quarter earnings season, but upside surprises will be smaller.

Last week, Congress was able to push back a fast-approaching deadline for raising the debt ceiling to December. Markets applauded the move with a relief rally. This week we look more closely at the role the debt ceiling plays in government financing, what could happen if the debt ceiling is not raised in a timely way, and why market participants were skittish about the approaching deadline as we look ahead to December.

One constant in life is change. During the past year and a half, we have experienced more change than any of us bargained for. Change is disruptive—but also brings opportunities.

With the fourth quarter underway-historically the best quarter for stocks, by the way-2022 is fast approaching. While a lot can still happen between now and the end of 2021, we don't think it's too early to start thinking about what stocks might do next year.

LPL Research examines two key elements that prompted us to slightly lower our year-end forecast for the 10-year Treasury yield.

LPL Research explores a few policy-related risks that may increase market volatility in the near-term but maintain the fundamental backdrop for the economy remains strong.

The resiliency of the economy continues to surprise and delight us better than our highest expectations for the year.

LPL Research explores five things that some bears believe that do not worry us.

LPL Research shares their current outlook on stagflation, the misery index, and inflation.

LPL Research comments on surprising earnings report numbers as they continue to come in.

Looking ahead, our stock market outlook remains positive as fundamental drivers have been robust, though we acknowledge that valuations are elevated.

LPL Research shares some insight into how the Delta variant may impact markets throughout August 2021.

LPL Research shares some insight into what may be on the horizon for markets, policy, and the economy as we head into August 2021.

LPL Research talks about a few things that have surprised them with markets, policy, and the economy in 2021.

LPL Research provides an overview of their predictions on the economy, policy, stocks, and bonds for the rest of 2021 and beyond.

Markets are always forward looking, and in LPL Research’s Midyear Outlook 2021: Picking Up Speed, we help you keep your eyes on the road ahead. We focus on the next 6–12 months, when markets may be looking at which latecomers to the rally have the strength to extend their run and whether there may be new beneficiaries of the global reopening.

LPL Research anticipates a strong earnings season and outlines the three things investors should keep on their radars this quarter.

LPL Research explores three things that worry us—and could make the market more susceptible to a pullback as we enter the second half of 2021.

Inflation seems to be on the rise, but LPL Research believes there are good reasons to think it will be transitory.

Policy tailwinds may turn into headwinds in 2022, but economic fundamentals are likely to dominate.

As we move into June, a path to normalcy is coming quickly with stadiums allowing full capacity, restaurants filling up, and summer vacations in full swing. Meanwhile, the U.S. economy continues to recover remarkably quickly and the stock market is near all-time highs. As of now, this year is on pace to be the best year for GDP growth since the early 1980s, bolstered by fiscal and monetary stimulus.

Long-term interest rates have traded sideways recently, but LPL Research argues that high-quality bonds can play a pivotal role in mitigating equity risk.

As this bull market gets a little older, the pace of stock market gains will likely slow, but a strong economic recovery lies ahead as the reopening continues.

LPL Research explains why inflation is making headlines and why investors should not be overly concerned.

As the calendar has turned to May, the popular “Sell in May and Go Away” stock market cliché is getting a lot of airtime.

LPL Research raises its year-end S&P 500 Index fair value target range again in the wake of a stunning Q1 2021 earnings season.

LPL Research notes some possible reasons for a pause in the rally and why any potential pullbacks won’t last very long.

LPL Research believes investors are appropriately optimistic, given the improving economy, the pace of vaccinations, fiscal stimulus, and surging earnings.

While optimism surrounding the reopening is certainly understandable, LPL Research takes a look to see if sentiment is flashing a near-term contrarian warning sign for stocks.

The outstanding fourth-quarter earnings season we had in 2020 is a tough act to follow, but 2021’s first quarter has the makings of another potentially great earnings season.

LPL Research revises previous forecasts to better reflect the growing optimism of an economy on the rebound.

Last month marked the one-year anniversary of the bottom of the vicious pandemic-induced bear market for the S&P 500 Index. Despite the turmoil of the past year, investors who did not get scared out of stocks have had a lot to smile about.

LPL Research examines inflation concerns and explain why they think any increases in inflation will most likely be fleeting.

LPL Research explains why any upticks in inflation will ultimately prove transitory.

The bear market ended one year ago this week, finishing one of the fastest and most vicious bear markets of all-time—one that led to a drawdown of 34%. Things have come full circle now, as stocks have staged a furious rally, with new highs happening across the globe as the economy recovers at a record pace.

LPL Research share their “Final Four Factors” for the stock market in 2021.

LPL Research discuss four things that matter the most for stocks in 2021.

It’s now been over a year since COVID-19 first hit American shores. While the pandemic has affected everyone to varying degrees, we can all agree that everyone’s life is different today than it was a year ago. It’s difficult to remember what normal looks like at this point.

Increasingly more people realize that their sustainability concerns can be address through their investments. As more investors embark on the sustainable investing journey—learn what it is, why one pursues it, and how to do it—assets into sustainable funds will continue and investors will have more choices from which to construct sustainable investing portfolios.

LPL Research considers some unique income ideas for diversifying investor portfolios & potentially reducing interest rate risk.

You can take any data and tell any story you want, but when you want to invest, you want to know what really matters.

LPL Research provides strong reasons for an increased forecast for growth and corporate profits in the new year.

The resiliency of the US economy continues to exceed expectations, supporting our increased forecast for growth and corporate profits in 2021.

LPL Research discusses the recent short stock frenzy, a positive earnings season, and how the Super Bowl has historically impacted stocks.

US debt levels have soared during the pandemic, but the market is taking it in stride, staying focused on reopening the economy.

Real-time data is sending positive news for the economy in 2021. Small cap stocks’ outperformance signals the early stages of an economic expansion, and high stock valuations appear justified. COVID-19 data is starting to show better trends.

Small cap stocks have outperformed large cap stocks over the last several months. They’re enjoying strong breadth and the earnings outlook is strong. This is a favorable part of the economic cycle.

Fourth quarter 2020 corporate earnings season likely will be the last in this earnings recession. Earnings may grow in the first quarter of 2021 and beyond. The economic recovery can drive a rebound in corporate profits.

LPL Research explains Q4 earnings, more stimulus, impact of the Democratic blue wave on markets, and where to invest in Joe Biden’s new economic policy plan.

The stock market has started off 2021 surprisingly well, and LPL Research Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick says this bull market is alive and well.

2021 policy is coming into focus as Democrats win majorities in both the US House and Senate. This may mean higher taxes but also more stimulus. Treasury yields are higher, but so are jobless claims. What’s next for stocks?

Democratic control of Congress may not impact 2021 policy as much as many believe. The biggest changes may be around taxes, regulation, and stimulus prospects. With the elections behind us, 2021 policy is coming into focus.

We look at what happened in 2020 and what that means for 2021. Right now the economy is showing some cracks, but the markets are looking ahead. Plus, what the markets are saying about the Georgia runoffs.

2020 was a unique year, from the longest economic expansion ever to the shortest recession on record. Stock markets are forward-looking, and they want clarity on elections, too. Above all else, 2020 showed our ability to persevere.

2020 was a tumultuous year. We likely had the shortest recession ever and began a new economic expansion. Small business and effective COVID-19 vaccines hold the key to continued economic growth in 2021.

Stocks and bonds posted strong returns in 2020, and we believe this early-stage bull market may be set for more strong performance in 2021. Opportunities for bond investors may require more patience.

LPL Research’s annual market outlook Outlook 2021: Powering Forward, which reviews what happened in 2020 and what to expect in 2021. It covers stocks and bonds, the economy, and a post-election policy environment built on new challenges, new opportunities, and new politics. We are looking forward to a new year--and to a world very different from the one we're leaving behind.

Markets have come a long way since March lows, and we see further gains ahead for stocks. We think small cap stocks in particular may have attractive growth potential.

Stocks continue their seasonal volatility, while the economy shows more signs of improving. Earnings season has come on strong, and we're warming up to small cap stocks. Plus, the latest on markets and the election.

It is a busy week. We consider the strong week of the S&P 500 Index in more than three months, ongoing stimulus talks, election news, potential tax increases, plus earnings season.

Corporate America will get closer to the return of earnings growth this earnings season. Investors will need to watch for continued impact from COVID-19, policy changes based on the election outcome, and winners that keep winning.

LPL Financial Research discusses factors possibly affecting the elections, including stocks, technology, stimulus, COVID-19, the Supreme Court, and jobs. 

Third quarter delivered unexpected S&P 500 Index gains that historically have led to a strong fourth quarter. Factors that may weigh in include President Trump’s COVID-19 diagnosis, recent limited job growth, no new stimulus package, and a contentious election.

November presidential election results may be delayed or disputed, or both, and President Donald Trump’s COVID-19 diagnosis adds to the noise. How will the markets react to this election uncertainty?

Investors are asking if they should sell off stocks prior to the election. In this 2-minute Street View video, LPL Financial Research Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick explains that how the economy is doing matters more than who is in the White House.

Autumn has arrived, with students back in school, baseball playoffs beginning, and football in full swing. Life is trying to get back to as normal as possible despite the ongoing impact from COVID-19. Although there are still reasons to worry, a number of positives are on the horizon.

The recent correction in the S&P 500 Index's technology sector presents a unique challenge to markets following a historic stretch of outperformance as technology's share of the market has ballooned in size. Despite September weakness in this sector that has dragged the broader market lower, we expect technology leadership to continue given supportive underlying fundamental and technical conditions.

LPL Financial Research reviews the 6-month S&P 500 rally, tech’s pullback, seasonal weakness, and potential economic impact from COVID-19 and the elections.

The S&P 500 sell-off and US dollar may be signaling an election winner, while the Fed signals for more stimulus.

The Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and Bank of Japan met in September to discuss the economy and monetary policy. Their policies remain focused on economic recovery, with an eye on COVID-19 developments.

LPL Financial Research Chief Investment Officer Burt White explains what a K-shaped recovery means and how the ability to adapt may predict future successes.

A NASDAQ correction and K-shaped recovery may mean more stock weakness, while stocks may be signaling an election winner.

Markets have been on a wild ride in September so far, with early strong days followed by one of the sharpest 10% corrections ever for the NASDAQ. Where will stocks go from here?

Burt White and Ryan Detrick discuss current market events in a socially distant manner live from Focus 2020.

Why have stocks done so well in such a challenging economic environment and with COVID-19 still an ongoing threat? We answer that and other top questions from investors.

LPL Research strategists discuss the S&P 500's recent win streak and its big drop. Is this the start of the sell-off?

Going back to school signals changes for everyone, including COVID-19 preparedness, an election, and impressive S&P 500 performance.

LPL Financial Research Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick highlights improving economic data that suggests the recession may be over.

August delivered an uncharacteristically strong performance, but it’s followed by September, a historically weak month. In Part 2 of our two-part election preview series, we focus on what a potential second term for President Donald Trump could mean for stocks and the economy.

A second term for President Donald Trump would likely feature a continuation of the pro-growth policies from the first term of his administration, and importantly for financial markets, a continuation of the status quo. Markets don't like uncertainty, and while Trump's negotiating style has been unpredictable at times, his commitment to lower taxes and deregulation may provide a consistent, market-friendly policy environment.

This week in the LPL Market Signals podcast, LPL Financial's Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick and Equity Strategist Jeff Buchbinder discuss the impacts of a potential Joe Biden victory.

While a potential Biden presidency may mean a shift from some pro-growth policies of the Trump administration, it's possible any negative market impact may be muted. Economic forces tend to dominate policy, though policy still matters, and historically, markets and the economy have shown little preference for either Republican or Democratic leadership.

What do the distance to the sun and the US presidential election have in common? LPL Financial Research CIO Burt White talks about the impact the most powerful force in US politics can have on an election.

Corporate earnings blew away expectations this quarter, with an average upside surprise of 22%. There are a number of reasons estimates were off, and we have five key takeaways from this earnings season.

The recession may be over, according to recent economic data. The S&P 500 Index had its best 100-day rally ever, gaining off March 23 lows. Q2 corporate earnings were down, but better than estimates, and forward guidance has been upbeat.

LPL Financial Research strategists explore some differences between the stock market and the economy in an attempt to explain the disconnect and also discuss the latest economic data.

We highlight some differences between the stock market and the economy in an attempt to explain the disconnect.

LPL Financial Research Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick talks about why gold is at all-time highs and we’re bullish on gold.

The S&P 500 Index has moved into positive territory and some data appears good, while other data remains troubling.

LPL Financial Research discusses the historically troublesome months of August and September, market sentiment, corporate earnings, and glistening gold.

Real-time economic data continues to show a slowdown, at the same time we're entering two months of the year that historically have been troublesome for stocks. Meanwhile, gold is breaking out to new all-time highs, confusing many as to what it all means. Stocks are likely due for a breather, but it isn't out of the ordinary to see both gold and stocks trend higher together.

LPL Financial Research Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick and Equity Strategist Jeffrey Buchbinder share LPL Research’s 2020 midyear outlook presentation and preview election 2020.

Slowing economic data and its impact on the stock market rally, record-high gold, and a busy week in corporate earnings are on tap for LPL Financial Research. 

Stocks continue to gain on hopes of a COVID-19 vaccine, but many economic data points still show weakness. Value-style stocks had a good showing against growth recently. And Q2 earnings may have hit a trough. We look at the winners and the losers.

Stock market weakness late last week caused investors to ask whether the long-awaited market pullback may be at hand. This week, we review the drivers of the market's impressive rally back to the break-even point for the year, share our thoughts on whether the gains are justified, and take a look at some timely data for clues on the state of the economic recovery.

The unprecedented nature of the COVID-19 lockdowns and widespread withdrawal of corporate guidance has set up an unpredictable earnings season.

In A Paparazzi View of PPP, LPL Research Chief Investment Officer Burt White takes a big-picture look at Congress’s small business rescue package, also called the Paycheck Protection Program or PPP.

LPL Research’s Midyear Outlook 2020 provides our updated views of the pillars for investing—the economy, bonds, and stocks.

The July Fourth holiday will be very different this year. Recent economic data has been better than expected, while a summer consolidation in the markets may be possible.

As we look ahead to the summer months, we can’t help but think what a challenging year it’s been so far.

Our country has survived many trying times before, and we are starting to see glimmers of hope on both the medical and economic fronts. Our resolve and fortitude will once again shine, as we head toward better times in the second half of 2020.

Stocks have had a historic run amid increasingly negative headlines.

As lockdown restrictions are lifted, timely indicators like vehicle traffic, electricity consumption, public transportation use, daily consumer confidence surveys, and a wide variety of weekly economic indicators point to a low mark in economic activity in the United Statesin April.

2019 delivered a strong market performance, but we think additional market gains may be possible in 2020.

Even with some bumps in the road, we expect the economic expansion to continue through 2020 and help power forward this bull market.

Monday was a tough day in the stock market, with the S&P 500 Index down more than 3% as the number of coronavirus cases reported outside of China jumped.

The last week has sure felt like taking an express elevator down, as the end of February brought a historic stock market sell-off, with the S&P 500 Index moving from an all-time high to a 10% correction in only six days—the quickest such move ever.

As we adapt to these changes in our daily lives, the stock markets have had to adapt to the new economic realities as well.

As the battle against the COVID-19 pandemic continues, how we respond to it will determine how we beat it.

LPL Financial Research Sr. Market Strategist Ryan Detrick says central banks have pledged to support global economies and bring back confidence and liquidity.

LPL Financial Research CIO Burt White explains why current low demand for oil is about more than cheap gas prices--it's also about who controls oil production around the world.

The Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security (CARES) Act was created to help keep workers paid and employed, allows businesses to remain operational and makes necessary health care system enhancements to stabilize the economy. We want to make sure you are aware of certain provisions designed to help you.

During periods of market volatility, avoid making investment decisions based on emotions.

The $2 trillion emergency relief package represents a bipartisan effort intended to assist individuals and businesses during the ongoing coronavirus pandemic and accompanying economic crisis.

Longer-term investors may want to consider looking for opportunities to invest in an eventual market recovery, as stocks are in the zone where adding to equity exposure could be quite beneficial.

Resolve requires more than just the courage to stare down the unknown—it is the commitment to overcome it.

The number of coronavirus cases have continued to increase globally, and new cases have been confirmed in the United States. Countries are making progress with containment, but those efforts also have resulted in a reduction in economic activity, adding to market uncertainty.

The tough times that global markets were experiencing due to the spread of COVID-19 (coronavirus) worsened this past weekend as a price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia resulted in sharply declining oil prices.

Global economic growth has been slowing, the US economy likely will contract temporarily, and US stocks have entered a bear market.

The S&P 500 Index entered a bear market on Thursday, closing -27% below its February 20 high.