This earnings season, corporate America will get closer to the return of earnings growth—which is likely in the first quarter of 2021. We probably will have another decline in profits for third quarter 2020, though potentially only about half as big as last quarter’s. And we will undoubtedly hear more about uncertainty— both COVID-19 and election-related. We also highlight three things investors can watch this earnings season.
MOVING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION
How investors evaluate this earnings season will depend on their perspectives. We are likely to get a much smaller year-over-year decline in S&P 500 Index profits in the third quarter compared to the second quarter, which is good news. Consensus is calling for a roughly 20% year-over-year decline in earnings per share (EPS) according to FactSet’s estimate, but we expect quite a bit better.
The consensus estimate for the third quarter has risen by about 4% over the past three months (best such increase in more than two years according to FactSet), a good sign that companies may be able to deliver more than the typical upside. And although fewer companies have offered guidance because of the amount of uncertainty, 67% of the guidance has been positive, significantly higher than the five-year average of 32%. Accordingly, we expect company management teams to instill confidence that the earnings rebound baked into analysts’ forecasts—or at least something close to it—may materialize.
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IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES
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